a new veneer for old power structures

On 16 August, Thailand elected its youngest-ever prime minister, the 38-year-old Paetongtarn “Ing” Shinawatra. The daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a dominant and controversial figure in Thai politics, Paetongtarn has led the Pheu Thai (For Thais) party, Thailand’s second-largest party, since 2023.

Pundits may be tempted, at first glance, to frame Paetongtarn’s appointment as “fresh energy” and democratic progress. Such a perception is partly explained by a recent institutional change: The senators appointed in 2019 by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), the governing body of the military junta that ruled from 2014 to 2023, completed their term in June 2024. According to the current 2017 Constitution, the new senate no longer have the right to vote for the prime minister.

However, it would be overly optimistic to think that Paetongtarn’s rise to power spells the end of the country’s political woes. Thailand’s politics continue to face headwinds that have persisted for many years.

From hope to disillusionment: a year of political turbulence

14 May 2023 marked a turning point in Thai political history. Born from the ashes of the Anakhot Mai party (Future Forward), the social democratic and reformist party Kao Klai (Move Forward) surprised many by garnering more than 14 million votes in the legislative elections, thus achieving a significant victory. The party campaigned on sweeping reforms across multiple areas, including the military, education system, civil bureaucracy, and the lèse-majesté law. They also pledged not to form a coalition with pro-military parties. This unexpected result revived hope for real democratic change in the country and propelled the very popular party leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, as a potential prime minister.

But the democratic momentum quickly hit a wall. Despite its popularity, the party Kao Klai faced opposition from conservative parties and the 250 senators appointed in 2019 by the military junta, itself led by putschists Generals Prayut Chan-o-cha and Prawit Wongsuwan. The party failed to form a coalition majority and eventually had to place itself in the opposition, despite their victory at the polls.

On 5 September 2023, Srettha Thavisin, a businessman and member of the centre-right Pheu Thai party, was elected prime minister after Pheu Thai struck a deal with pro-military and pro-monarchy factions, betraying the vow to not work with the “uncle parties”. During their first year in government, they achieved very little, with the notable exception of the legalisation of same-sex marriage in December 2023. The party’s popularity tanked.

On 7 August 2024, the Thai Constitutional Court, whose independence is frequently questioned, dissolved the Kao Klai party after it had campaigned to reform Article 112 of the penal code, the crime of lèse-majesté. To the court, the proposal constituted a threat to the Thai political system, where the king is the head of state. As a result of the judgement, the party leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, along with several other leaders, has been banned from any political activity for 10 years.

The Constitutional Court also dismissed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin exactly a week later, on 14 August. This time, the decision was motivated by an allegation of serious violation of ethics in the appointment to his cabinet of a legislator previously sentenced for corruption.

Bargaining for the return of the Shinawatra dynasty

Paetongtarn’s election consolidates the power of the Shinawatra family, a political dynasty that has profoundly marked recent Thai history. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, who served as prime minister from 2001 to 2006, was overthrown by a military coup and went into exile until 2023. Her uncle, Somchai Wongsawat, briefly held the position in 2008 before being dismissed by the Constitutional Court for electoral fraud. Her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, prime minister from 2011 to 2014, met a similar fate to Thaksin: Ousted by a new coup, she has since lived in exile in Dubai.

If there’s anything to exemplify the tensions running through the country, it’s the Shinawatras’ journey. On the one hand, they have long managed to attract the support of the working class thanks to populist policies, especially in rural areas. On the other, they have been accused, among others, of corruption, nepotism, and an excessive concentration of power.

Thaksin Shinawatra appears to have undertaken a major political negotiation from exile in August 2023. Although sentenced to eight years in prison for corruption and abuse of power, his sentence was quickly commuted to one year by the king of Thailand, just days after his return from exile.

Thaksin never spent a single night in prison; instead, he was transferred to a VIP room in a police hospital after complaining of health problems. The mystery surrounding this prolonged hospitalisation, his early release on parole after only one year, and the recent royal pardon that shortens his parole by two weeks all point to a deal struck behind the scenes with the conservative establishment.

Paetongtarn’s rise to power confirms the alliance between Pheu Thai and the conservative and pro-military parties. But the long-term coherence and stability of this coalition are questionable. We can’t overlook the risk that Paetongtarn might suffer the same fate as other members of her family who have held power.

A long list of political challenges

The new prime minister, who has little experience in politics, inherits a complex economic and political situation.

She’ll have to grapple with a sluggish Thai economy as well as criticisms for failing to honour certain campaign promises. This is notably in the case of the flagship policy of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin: the introduction of a digital wallet. Through this system, Thais aged 16 and over would receive a one-time payment of 10,000 baht (260 euros) in digital currency. However, the government is considering rolling back the policy in the coming months, particularly to protect the new prime minister from possible legal repercussions. Indeed, this populist policy is strongly contested, especially by the central bank, due to its reliance on public finances. Moreover, the National Anti-Corruption Commission has already issued a warning that the digital wallet could lead to increased corruption and the government could be held responsible for negligence, similar to how the Rice Pledge program was used against Yingluck.

On the political front, the new government faces the challenge of balancing the interests of the various factions making up the ruling coalition. The unprecedented alliance between the Pheu Thai party and its former conservative and pro-military adversaries raises questions about the government’s ability to pass substantial reforms.

Despite this alliance, the total support of these parties is not guaranteed, nor is that of conservative voters. Paetongtarn thus finds herself in a precarious position. She risks facing criticism from all sides, which could compromise her ability to govern effectively.

Under her father’s shadow

Moreover, recent developments have revealed that the true decision-maker in Thailand is not Paetongtarn, but rather her father. He has been increasingly visible at public events and displaying his control over his daughter; evidenced by his own words: “she is not dominated by me, but she is under my control. So what? She is my daughter.”. A petition has already been filed to ban the Pheu Thai Party due to Thaksin’s alleged dominance over the party, which is against the constitution.

In three years, new legislative elections will take place. Currently, popular discontent with Pheu Thai does not bode well for a victory. The party will have to confront other conservative parties, including Bhumjaithai (Thai Pride), which is increasingly powerful in the Thai political landscape. This is evidenced by the 150 out of 200 senators affiliated with the Bhumjaithai party appointed in June 2024 through a complex system in which the population does not participate.

If Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai do not have the favour of the people, they can rely on the “baan yai” (big houses). These networks of influence, consisting of rich and powerful families, dominate regional and provincial politics through a system of patronage and clientelism. This “baan yai” system continues to play a crucial role in favour of conservative parties.

Furthermore, the new Prachachon (People’s Party), formed by former members of the dissolved Kao Klai, promises to constitute a vigorous opposition within Parliament. With 143 MPs, the party, led by 37-year-old entrepreneur Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, intends to pursue the reformist agenda that had attracted a large part of the electorate in 2023.

Biased institutions

The election of Paetongtarn, despite a certain generational renewal, follows the continuity of a political system dominated by influential families and the military-royalist establishment.

The use of judicial institutions and control bodies such as the Constitutional Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission to sideline reformist voices raises serious questions about the independence of these institutions and the stability of the rule of law in Thailand. The message is clear: profound reforms will not be tolerated, and the popular vote can be circumvented by institutional power.

Donning T-shirts proclaiming the French motto of “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity”, there is little doubt today’s reform supporters are resilient and ready to continue the struggle for the Thai democracy. However, with 44 parliamentarians formerly members of Kao Klai currently under investigations that could exclude them from political life, the infernal cycle never seems to stop.