Voice to Parliament referendum is defeated after majority of states vote ‘no’

The Voice to Parliament referendum is projected to fail after the ABC called
“no” victories in four states – New South Wales, Tasmania, South Australia and Queensland – shortly after the polls closed tonight.

The ABC put the “no” vote ahead at 57-43% in NSW (with 53% of the vote counted); 60-40% in Tasmania (with 60% counted); 61-39% in South Australia (with 45% counted); and 65–35% in Queensland (with 25% counted).

It’s very likely there will be a decisive national vote majority against the referendum, as well. The Poll Bludger is currently projecting a 57.1–42.9% win for “no” in the national vote.

The referendum required a majority vote in a majority of the states (four of six), as well as a majority vote nationally, to succeed. Votes cast in the Northern Territory and ACT are only counted in the national vote.

The ACT is projected to vote “yes” by a 65.4–35.6% margin, with 39% of the vote counted.

If the result stands, it will be a good result for the pollsters, who have been projecting a win for the “no” side for months. Some pollsters were too high for “yes” and others too low, but the overall trends look correct.

Here is the latest poll graph that was updated with the final Newspoll and JWS polls and tonight’s very provisional result.

In May, I wrote that just one of 25 Labor-initiated referendums had succeeded in winning the required majority of states, as well as a national majority. While not successful, Labor referendums held with general elections have performed far better than when held as a standalone referendum.

In view of this history, it was a blunder to hold this referendum as a standalone vote, rather than at the next general election.

Read more:
While the Voice has a large poll lead now, history of past referendums indicates it may struggle

Six of 18 referendums proposed by conservative governments have succeeded. The reason for the huge difference in success rate between Labor and conservative-initiated referendums is that Labor sometimes gives its support to conservative referendums, while the conservatives almost never do in reverse.