Voice to Parliament referendum is heavily defeated nationally and in majority of states

The Voice to Parliament referendum has failed convincingly after the ABC projected large victories for the “no” side in the national vote and in a majority of states tonight.

The Poll Bludger is currently projecting a 58.6–41.4% win for “no” in the national vote.

The Poll Bludger’s current projections in the states, with 49% counted nationally, are a “no” win in New South Wales (57.9–42.1%), Victoria (52.3–47.7%), Queensland (65.7–34.3%), South Australia (62.2–37.8%) and Tasmania (59–41%).

Polls didn’t close in Western Australia until 9pm AEDT, but it’s expected to be an easy “no” win there.

Read more:
Voice to Parliament referendum defeated: results at-a-glance

The referendum required a majority vote in a majority of the states (four of six), as well as a majority vote nationally, to succeed. Votes cast in the Northern Territory and ACT are only counted in the national vote.

The ACT is the only state or territory that will vote “yes”, by a 63.8–36.2% margin in the Poll Bludger projection. The NT is currently projecting for a 61.5–38.5% “no” vote.

If the results stand, it will be mean the pollsters were correct – they have been projecting a win for the “no” side for months. Some pollsters were too high for “yes” and others too low, but the overall trends look correct.

Here is the latest aggregate poll graph that was updated with the final Newspoll and JWS polls and tonight’s provisional results. I loaded this graph when the national totals had a lower “no” lead, and will amend it tomorrow morning.

In May, I wrote that just one of 25 Labor-initiated referendums had succeeded in winning the required majority of states, as well as a national majority. While not successful, Labor referendums held with general elections have performed far better than when held as a standalone referendum.

In view of this history, it was a blunder to hold this referendum as a standalone vote, rather than at the next general election.

Six of 18 referendums proposed by conservative governments have succeeded. The reason for the huge difference in success rate between Labor and conservative-initiated referendums is that Labor sometimes gives its support to conservative referendums, while the conservatives almost never do in reverse.

Read more:
While the Voice has a large poll lead now, history of past referendums indicates it may struggle